Strategic foresight
| Strategic foresight |
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| See also |
Strategic foresight is often defined as strategic anticipation. Strategic Foresight is in brief terms the prediction and evaluation of future events over a long or medium term. After this management can create strategies to avoid dangers and seize opportunities in the future. Foresight is often used as a source of diagnoses of major social and economic problems over time and as a tool for forecasting and decision-making both by the government, business and the public sphere institutions.
Today Foresight is a process strongly associated with the policy of technical and scientific innovation of the country. This process has a significant influence on the shaping and implementation of the policy of the state. Sometimes foresight as well as its results are used as a means of cultural development in society in terms of thinking about the future. Focusing the discussion representatives of public authorities, industry, NGOs, research organizations, and society Foresight is becoming one of the main tools for planning the future. Through panel discussions, workshops targeted, Delphi method, scenario development and seminars information on the new development trends is provided. The essence of foresight is to identify alternative development paths, and not only that which results from the extrapolation of current trends and conditions.
States can choose strategic directions of research and technology development aimed at the largest economic and social benefits in the economy. Participants of the Foresight process determine the directions of research by creating a vision of future goals and achievements.As a result, Foresight is a process that aims to provide opportunities to think about the future of society.
Futuring and Planning
Foresight term distinguishes between two categories. The first is the Futuring. It is the art of identifying and evaluating possible future events. This term is very broad and focused exclusively on the future. Planning however, is the preparation of plans, a set of preliminary decisions about the future. In their structure they may contain the identification of objectives and strategies to achieve them. The main difference between these terms is that Planning is focused on making immediate decisions about the future actions. Futuring focuses on the future and the meaning of the possible objectives and strategies.
Strategic foresight methods
- Panel discussions
- SWOT analysis and analysis of constraints
- Delphi method
- Analysis of cross-influences
- Scenario analysis
- PEST analysis (Political,Socio-Economic-Technological)
Strategic Foresight Usability
Foresight is playing an increasingly larger role in today's society, and science policy. The use of foresight increases the probability of selecting an appropriate course of action. The usefulness of the process can be validated using multiple arguments. Thanks to the program it is possible to predict the development of emerging technologies that are usually not taken into account in computer modelling. Policy makers can take fuller account about the impact of the events on society, environment and economy.Another fact in favour of Foresight is that it minimizes the subjective evaluation by listening to a large, diverse group of experts from across different fields of science and practice. Ultimately, Foresight is a useful tool in decision making and choosing preferred support mechanisms for science, technical and innovative policy of state. Used in the narrowest possible range offers desired, accurate information about the chosen area.
References
- Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239.
- Costanzo, L. A. (2004). Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment. Futures, 36(2), 219-235.
- Heger, T., & Rohrbeck, R. (2012). Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(5), 819-831.
- Slaughter, R. A. (1997). Developing and applying strategic foresight. ABN Report, 5(10), 13-27.
- Bootz, J. P. (2010). Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis. Technological forecasting and social change, 77(9), 1588-1594.
