Adaptive expectations is an economic theory that posits that individuals and firms form their expectations about future economic conditions based on their past experiences and the information currently available to them. This theory suggests that people tend to "adapt" their expectations based on past events, rather than using rational or objective forecasting methods. The theory is often used to explain why inflationary expectations may be slow to adjust to changes in monetary policy.
Adaptive expectations impact on inflation
Adaptive expectations can have a significant impact on inflation by influencing individuals' and firms' expectations about future price levels. According to the theory, individuals and firms may form their expectations about future inflation based on their past experiences and the current information available to them. This means that if they have experienced high inflation in the past, they may expect high inflation in the future, even if monetary policy has changed to combat inflation.
This can create a self-fulfilling cycle, as individuals and firms may make decisions based on their inflationary expectations, such as adjusting their prices or wages, which in turn can drive actual inflation higher. This can make it difficult for policymakers to control inflation, as they may have to contend with expectations that have become entrenched in the economy. On the other hand, if individuals and firms expect low inflation, they may adjust their prices and wages accordingly, which in turn can help to keep actual inflation low.
Adaptive expectations in context of human behaviour
Adaptive expectations theory can be applied to human behavior in the context of decision making and forecasting. The theory suggests that individuals tend to rely on past experiences and current information to form their expectations about future events, rather than using rational or objective forecasting methods. This can lead to a number of biases and errors in decision making, such as the tendency to extrapolate recent trends into the future and to place too much weight on recent information.
In the context of human behavior, adaptive expectations can lead to a number of cognitive biases such as the status quo bias, where people tend to stick with what they are familiar with and have experienced in the past, rather than considering new options. It also can lead to the sunk cost fallacy, where people tend to continue investing in a decision, even if it is not rational to do so, because they have already invested a significant amount of resources into it.
Adaptive expectations can also play a role in the formation of social norms and expectations. For example, if people have experienced a certain level of income inequality in the past, they may come to expect that level of inequality in the future, and may be less likely to support policies that aim to reduce inequality.
In summary, adaptive expectations theory highlights how individuals tend to rely on past experiences and current information to form their expectations, which can lead to biases in decision making and forecasting, and can shape social norms and expectations.
Limitations of adaptive expectations theory
The adaptive expectations theory has several limitations:
- It assumes that individuals and firms have perfect information and that they are able to process this information in a rational and unbiased manner. However, in reality, individuals and firms may not have access to all relevant information and may be subject to cognitive biases.
- The theory assumes that individuals and firms adjust their expectations gradually and in response to new information. However, in reality, expectations may change abruptly and without a clear cause.
- The theory assumes that individuals and firms have the same expectations, which may not always be the case. Expectations can vary widely among different groups of people and firms.
- The theory is based on the assumption that people's expectations adjust to the current state of the economy. However, in reality, people's expectations may be shaped by their expectations of future policy changes, their beliefs about the future of economy and other factors that are not directly related to the current state of the economy.
- The theory does not account for the role of expectations in shaping economic outcomes. It is possible that people's expectations can influence economic outcomes in a self-fulfilling way, but the theory does not provide a direct explanation for this relationship.
- The theory is based on the assumption that people's expectation are based on past experiences and current information, which may not always be the case. People's expectations can be influenced by many other factors such as social norms, beliefs, emotions, etc.
In summary, adaptive expectations theory is a useful framework for understanding how individuals and firms form their expectations, but it has limitations in its assumptions and its ability to explain all the complexity of the real-world economy.
Other expectations theories
There are several theories that are related to adaptive expectations theory:
- Rational Expectations Theory: This theory posits that individuals and firms have access to all relevant information and use it to form rational and unbiased expectations about future economic conditions. Unlike adaptive expectations theory, rational expectations theory assumes that individuals and firms form their expectations based on a rational analysis of all available information.
- Expectations-augmented Phillips curve: This theory suggests that the relationship between inflation and unemployment is influenced by the expectations of individuals and firms about future inflation. The theory argues that if people expect high inflation, they will demand higher wages, which in turn will lead to higher inflation and lower unemployment.
- Self-fulfilling prophecies: This theory suggests that people's expectations can shape economic outcomes in a self-fulfilling way. For example, if investors expect a stock market crash, they may sell their stocks, which can in turn lead to a stock market crash.
- Behavioral economics: This field of study suggests that individuals and firms are not always rational and unbiased in their decision-making and that their behavior is influenced by a variety of cognitive biases and heuristics. Behavioral economics incorporates the idea that human behavior is influenced by emotions, social norms and other factors that are not always rational.
- Representativeness Heuristic: This cognitive bias describes the tendency of people to judge the probability of an event based on how similar it is to a prototype of the event. This can lead to the formation of expectations that are not based on objective probabilities or past experiences.
- Anchoring: This cognitive bias refers to the tendency of people to rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive when making judgments or forming expectations. This can lead to unrealistic expectations that are not based on objective information.
In summary, adaptive expectations theory is related to other theories such as rational expectations theory, expectations-augmented Phillips curve, self-fulfilling prophecies, behavioral economics and cognitive biases such as Representativeness Heuristic and Anchoring. These theories offer different perspectives on how expectations are formed and how they can influence economic outcomes.
|Adaptive expectations — recommended articles
|Market dynamics — Uncertainty avoidance — Demand — Austrian theory of money — Assumptions of economics — Perfect information — Impact of information on decision-making — Austrian business cycle theory — Economic risk — Institutional economy
- Colasante, A., Palestrini, A., Russo, A., & Gallegati, M. (2017). Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 988-1006.
- Yao, Y., Zhao, Y., & Li, Y. (2022). A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model. International Review of Financial Analysis, 102202.
- Xianyu, B. (2012). Prisoner's dilemma game on complex networks with agents' adaptive expectations. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 15(3), 3.