Strategic scenarios method

Scenario is an expected picture of the situation in the future. Scenarios created for enterprises represent the possible behavior resulting from the anticipated external factors.

Scenario methods are a key strategic management tool. They help when planning a business strategy in the longer term. These methods allow you to provide various types of phenomena that can occur in a changing environment, which will help prepare them.

Types of scenarios

The strategic scenarios method is a tool used to help organizations anticipate and plan for potential future events and developments. It involves creating different scenarios, or "what if" scenarios, that describe different possible future states of the organization and its environment. These scenarios are then used to help the organization identify potential risks and opportunities and to develop strategies that will enable it to respond effectively to different future events.

There are several types of scenarios that are commonly used in the strategic scenarios method:

• Baseline scenarios: These are scenarios that describe a "business as usual" or "status quo" future state. They provide a baseline against which other scenarios can be compared.
• Best-case scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the most favorable future state for the organization. They are used to identify the best possible outcomes and opportunities.
• Worst-case scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the most unfavorable future state for the organization. They are used to identify potential risks and challenges.
• Most likely scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the future state that is most likely to occur, based on current trends and information. They are used to identify the most likely opportunities and risks.
• Wildcard scenarios: These are scenarios that describe unlikely but potentially impactful future events. They are used to identify low probability, high impact events that could have a significant effect on the organization.
• Reverse scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the opposite of the most likely scenarios. They are used to identify opportunities and risks in the opposite direction of the most likely scenarios.

In summary, strategic scenarios method is a tool used to help organizations anticipate and plan for potential future events and developments, by creating different scenarios that describe different possible future states of the organization and its environment. These scenarios are then used to help the organization identify potential risks and opportunities and to develop strategies that will enable it to respond effectively to different future events.

Scenario methods

Scenario methods are divided into 4 groups:

• Scenarios of possible events
• Simulation scenarios
• Scenarios of states in environment
• Scenarios of processes in environment

See also:

• Strategic trajectory evaluation

Examples of Strategic scenarios method

• The Toffler scenario: Alvin Toffler's Three Wave Theory outlines the three major waves of development in human history - agrarian, industrial, and post-industrial. He proposed that the post-industrial wave consists of accelerating technological change, greater complexity, and shorter product cycles. Strategic scenarios built on this theory help organizations anticipate and prepare for rapid changes in the market.
• The Delphi scenario: The Delphi method is a scenario-building technique that uses a panel of experts to identify trends and develop scenarios. The technique involves gathering expert opinions and synthesizing those into a consensus. This type of scenario is effective in helping organizations prepare for unknown and rapid changes in the market.
• The Game of Thrones scenario: One example of a game-based scenario is the Game of Thrones scenario. This type of scenario builds on the popular HBO series and uses its characters and storylines as a starting point for creating a hypothetical future. Strategic scenarios built on this type of narrative can help organizations develop a better understanding of the competitive landscape and potential competitive moves.

Advantages of Strategic scenarios method

The strategic scenarios method offers several advantages to organizations. These include:

• An increased ability to anticipate and adapt to external factors, allowing organizations to develop strategic plans that are better prepared for the future.
• The ability to identify both opportunities and risks, allowing organizations to make better-informed decisions.
• A comprehensive view of the future environment, allowing organizations to identify potential trends and plan for them accordingly.
• The ability to incorporate multiple perspectives, allowing organizations to develop a more comprehensive and integrated strategy.
• A cost-effective approach to strategic planning, allowing organizations to save on time and resources while increasing their effectiveness.

Limitations of Strategic scenarios method

The Strategic scenarios method is a powerful tool for predicting and planning for future situations, however, it is not without its drawbacks. The following are some of the limitations of this method:

• First, the scenarios created are based on the assumptions of the creator and may not be accurate reflections of the future. This means that businesses should plan cautiously and not rely too heavily on the scenarios.
• Second, it is difficult to accurately predict the external factors that may influence the future. Even if these factors can be identified, it is difficult to anticipate how they will interact with each other or the business.
• Third, the scenarios may not be able to accurately capture the complexity of the situation, as external factors can interact with each other in unexpected ways.
• Finally, the scenarios are static and do not allow for the dynamic nature of the world. As the external factors change and evolve, the scenarios may need to be adjusted to reflect these changes.

Other approaches related to Strategic scenarios method

In addition to the Strategic scenarios method, there are several other approaches used for creating scenarios. These include:

• The Delphi Method - This approach is used to gather expert opinions in order to create a consensus about the future. It involves a group of experts who provide input on the projected situation and is often used for forecasting.
• Scenario Planning - This is a process of creating a series of alternative futures. It is used to help an organization plan for uncertain futures by exploring a range of potential outcomes.
• System Dynamics - This approach is used to simulate how different factors interact in a system over time. It is based on the idea that behavior of a system is determined by its structure and the links between components of the system.
• Scenario Forecasting - This approach is used to predict the future. It involves collecting data and using algorithms to identify patterns and trends in the data in order to make predictions.

In summary, there are several approaches that can be used to create scenarios in order to plan for uncertain futures. The Strategic scenarios method is one approach, but there are other approaches such as the Delphi Method, Scenario Planning, System Dynamics, and Scenario Forecasting that can also be used.

Strategic scenarios method — recommended articles

Scenarios of possible events — Simulation scenarios — Strategic foresight — Continuation Pattern — Wardley map — Base effect — Markov Analysis — Causal loop diagram — Scenarios of processes in environment

References

• Postma, T. J., & Liebl, F. (2005). How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(2), 161-173.