Performance models

Performance models
See also
Earned value analysis Software cost estimation Earned value calculation Project monitoring and control Mechanisms of control Analysis of project Assessment of the project Project management theory Measures of success

Performance Models are predictive models used to estimate the effort, duration, and cost associated with a project. These models are based on past performance data and are used to forecast future performance based on the current project's characteristics. Performance models are used to optimize resource utilization and improve the accuracy of project plans and estimates. They help project managers to evaluate the impact of changes in scope, resources, or schedule on project performance. It is also used to determine how to allocate resources in order to achieve maximum efficiency with the given constraints.

Example of performance models

• The Earned Value Management (EVM) Model: This model is used to track and measure progress of projects. It compares the planned cost and planned schedule of a project with the actual cost and actual schedule. It provides a comprehensive view of the project’s progress, which can be used to develop corrective actions and adjust goals and objectives.
• The Critical Path Method (CPM): This model is used to create a project schedule by identifying the critical activities, which have the longest duration and determine the shortest possible time for completing the project. It is used to identify the activities that are essential for the successful completion of the project.
• The Monte Carlo Model: This model is used to simulate the process of a project to predict its timelines and cost. It uses probabilistic analysis to simulate multiple scenarios and provide estimates of the project’s duration and cost.
• The Delphi Method: This model is used to consensus-based decisions by bringing together experts in the field and asking them to provide their input and opinions on a project. It is used to develop solutions to complex problems.
• Planning and scheduling: Performance models can be used to accurately estimate the duration and cost of a project and to create realistic project plans and schedules.
• Resource allocation: Performance models can be used to determine the optimal resource allocation for a project, taking into account the availability and cost of resources.
• Risk assessment: Performance models can be used to assess the risks associated with a project, including cost and schedule overruns.
• Performance monitoring: Performance models can be used to monitor project performance over time and detect any potential problems.
• Cost forecasting: Performance models can be used to forecast the cost of a project based on the scope, schedule, and resource requirements.

Best practices of performance models

1. Establish a baseline: Before introducing a performance model, project managers should establish a baseline or baseline schedule. The baseline helps to measure the progress of the project and determine the amount of resources and effort needed to complete the project on time.
2. Define the scope: The scope of the project should be clearly defined in order to ensure that the performance model is appropriate for the project. It is important to understand the project's requirements and boundaries in order to create a reliable performance model.
3. Collect data: Collecting relevant data is essential for creating an accurate performance model. Data should include past project performance, resource availability, project scope, and other factors that could impact project performance.
4. Analyze data: Analyzing the data is necessary to create the performance model. This includes identifying the factors that have the greatest impact on project performance and the relationships between them.
5. Test the model: It is important to test the performance model before using it in a project. This can be done by using past data to see how the model performs.
6. Monitor performance: Performance models should be regularly monitored to ensure that they are working accurately. This helps project managers to identify potential issues and take corrective action before they become too severe.

Advantages of performance models

Performance models provide a number of advantages to project managers, such as:

• Improved accuracy of project estimates: Performance models provide a more accurate method of estimating project duration, cost, and resource requirements. They are better able to account for complexities and changes in the project, ensuring that there is less risk of underestimating the project scope.
• Increased efficiency: Performance models can help to optimize the utilization of resources by forecasting the time and cost of tasks and providing data-driven decision-making. This helps to reduce the amount of time and money spent on projects, as well as improve the quality of the final product.
• Better planning and control: Performance models allow project managers to better plan and control the project, as they can identify risks and issues early on, as well as track and adjust the project plan. This helps to ensure that the project is completed within budget and on time.
• Improved communication: Performance models provide a common language and structure for project communication, helping to ensure that all stakeholders are on the same page. This eliminates confusion and misinterpretation, leading to better decisions and greater project success.

Limitations of performance models

Performance models can be a useful tool for accurately estimating project efforts and costs, but they are not without their limitations. Below are a few of the major limitations of performance models:

• They are based on past performance data and therefore cannot accurately predict future performance. This can lead to inaccurate estimates and poor decision-making.
• They often do not account for changes in scope, resources, or schedule that may occur during the project.
• They may not take into account the complexities of the project and the unique aspects of each project.
• They are often not able to factor in the human element and the impact that individual personalities may have on the project.
• They are often not flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions and requirements.
• They may not be able to accurately predict the impact of external factors, such as changes in the market or technology, on the project.

Suggested literature

• Qureshi, T. M., Warraich, A. S., & Hijazi, S. T. (2009). Significance of project management performance assessment (PMPA) model. International Journal of Project Management, 27(4), 378-388.