Strategic scenarios method
| Strategic scenarios method |
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Scenario is an expected picture of the situation in the future. Scenarios created for enterprises represent the possible behavior resulting from the anticipated external factors.
Scenario methods are a key strategic management tool. They help when planning a business strategy in the longer term. These methods allow you to provide various types of phenomena that can occur in a changing environment, which will help prepare them.
Types of scenarios
The strategic scenarios method is a tool used to help organizations anticipate and plan for potential future events and developments. It involves creating different scenarios, or "what if" scenarios, that describe different possible future states of the organization and its environment. These scenarios are then used to help the organization identify potential risks and opportunities and to develop strategies that will enable it to respond effectively to different future events.
There are several types of scenarios that are commonly used in the strategic scenarios method:
- Baseline scenarios: These are scenarios that describe a "business as usual" or "status quo" future state. They provide a baseline against which other scenarios can be compared.
- Best-case scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the most favorable future state for the organization. They are used to identify the best possible outcomes and opportunities.
- Worst-case scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the most unfavorable future state for the organization. They are used to identify potential risks and challenges.
- Most likely scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the future state that is most likely to occur, based on current trends and information. They are used to identify the most likely opportunities and risks.
- Wildcard scenarios: These are scenarios that describe unlikely but potentially impactful future events. They are used to identify low probability, high impact events that could have a significant effect on the organization.
- Reverse scenarios: These are scenarios that describe the opposite of the most likely scenarios. They are used to identify opportunities and risks in the opposite direction of the most likely scenarios.
In summary, strategic scenarios method is a tool used to help organizations anticipate and plan for potential future events and developments, by creating different scenarios that describe different possible future states of the organization and its environment. These scenarios are then used to help the organization identify potential risks and opportunities and to develop strategies that will enable it to respond effectively to different future events.
Scenario methods
Scenario methods are divided into 4 groups:
- Scenarios of possible events
- Simulation scenarios
- Scenarios of states in environment
- Scenarios of processes in environment
See also:
References
- Postma, T. J., & Liebl, F. (2005). How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(2), 161-173.
