Scenarios of processes in environment

Scenarios are a tool used to provide alternative routes for the development of possible events in the future and point to their logical consequences.

Scenarios of environmental processes is an extended version of the scenarios of environmental states. As the name suggests they focus in particular on the key processes that can strongly influence the organization and its continued operation in the future.

Five steps of creating scenarios of processes in environment

1. The first step is the identification of two types of processes occurring in the environment of the organization:
   • Key processes - the processes that have a strong impact on the organization, and their probability of occurrence is very high,
   • Discontinuous change processes - their influence is as strong as in the case of key processes, with the difference that the probability of their occurrence is lower.
2. The second step is to identify phenomena that shape previously identified processes and examine them carefully. These phenomena can be divided into:
   • Qualitative - i.e.: changes in fashion, new social trends, place in hierarchy of needs of customers,
   • Quantitative - i.e.: income, population size, income spent on various products.
3. The third step involves creating a variants of processes. It is primarily used to identify and assess the degree of change in the intensity of the various phenomena. It provides minimum and maximum values of processes, estimate their size, interpret trends and ultimately determine their likelihood and possible consequences.
4. The fourth step is to identify relationships between most important processes (effects of which will be most noticeable for the organization). Thanks to this operation it will be possible to also determine the direction of these effects and most affected areas of the organization. This knowledge will help managers in early adaptation to changes.

Advantages and disadvantages

Method of scenarios of processes in environment work well especially in crisis situations. It collect information on key processes and then examine them carefully for evidence of possible options. It allows managers to build an early warning system for the organization. The purpose of such scenarios is to prepare the organization for the consequences posed by future events and adaptation to them. It can even allow to utilize the dangerous trends in favour of the company.

In practice there are many pitfalls associated with this method. One of them is a situation in which building of the scenarios is handed down to external experts. This can result in lack of consistency between the scenario and the organization's strategic decisions. Another problem is analysing too many trends and focus solely on the threat environment. In such situation it is difficult to formulate the effective strategy of the organization. Another problem is the long time needed to prepare good scenarios.

See also:

• Scenarios of states in environment
• Strategic scenarios method

Examples of Scenarios of processes in environment

• Imagine a world where cities are built in harmony with their natural surroundings, encouraging wildlife and plant life to thrive alongside human activity, reducing the impacts of climate change. This scenario could involve the implementation of green infrastructure such as green roofs, urban gardens, and permeable pavement to absorb excess water and reduce the amount of energy needed to cool buildings. It could also involve the construction of energy efficient structures, the use of renewable energy sources, and the adoption of policies that reduce emissions from transportation and other activities.
• A scenario where coastal areas are protected from rising sea levels and extreme weather events by implementing a combination of physical barriers, such as levees, and natural solutions, such as mangrove and coral reef restoration, could help to reduce the impact of climate change on vulnerable communities. This scenario could also involve the adoption of policies that would reduce emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, as well as the adoption of renewable energy sources.
• In a scenario where cities are designed to be more resilient to climate change, buildings and infrastructure would be built using materials and designs that can withstand extreme weather conditions, such as flooding, high winds, and heat waves. This scenario could involve the use of green infrastructure, such as green roofs, urban gardens, and permeable pavement, to absorb excess water and reduce the amount of energy needed to cool buildings. It could also involve the adoption of policies that reduce emissions from transportation and other activities, as well as the adoption of renewable energy sources.

Other approaches related to Scenarios of processes in environment

Scenarios are just one tool used to explore the future and the potential consequences of different decisions. Other approaches related to scenarios that can be used to analyze processes in the environment are as follows:

• System Dynamics Modeling: System Dynamics Modeling is a method that uses computer simulations to explore complex systems and their interactions. It allows users to create a model of an environment and then use it to analyze the potential outcomes of different scenarios.
• Agent-Based Modeling: Agent-Based Modeling is a type of computer simulation that takes the actions of individual agents into account. It can be used to simulate complex systems, such as the interactions between different species in an ecosystem, or the interactions between different countries in the global economy.
• Optimization Modeling: Optimization Modeling is a type of mathematical modeling that seeks to optimize the performance of a system by finding the best possible solution to a given problem. It can be used to analyze the costs and benefits of different scenarios and determine the most efficient way of achieving a desired outcome.
• Monte Carlo Simulation: Monte Carlo Simulation is a type of computer simulation that uses random sampling techniques to explore the potential outcomes of different scenarios. It is often used to analyze risk, uncertainty, and the likelihood of different outcomes.

In summary, there are a variety of different approaches that can be used to analyze processes in the environment, including System Dynamics Modeling, Agent-Based Modeling, Optimization Modeling, and Monte Carlo Simulation. Each approach can provide insights into the potential consequences of different scenarios.

Scenarios of processes in environment — recommended articles

TOWS analysis — Simulation scenarios — Dynamic risk — SWOT analysis — Scenarios of possible events — Strategic scenarios method — Perfect system — Strategic planning tools — Risk analysis in project

References

• Postma, T. J., & Liebl, F. (2005). How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(2), 161-173.